Scientists have announced that the Super El Niño climate pattern is evolving and strengthening, with new measurements showing a steady upward trend in sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific. The event is projected to persist into early 2027, according to updated analyses.
From April to June, sea surface temperatures in the region were approximately 0.98°C above average. By June, this figure increased to 1.55°C above average, and by July 15, it reached 2.1°C above average. Researchers from Columbia University noted that these observations indicate El Niño conditions are intensifying, suggesting the event is evolving toward a very strong El Niño.
In addition to oceanic indicators like sea surface temperatures, researchers examined atmospheric indicators, specifically the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This index measures the sea-level pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. The SOI was –24.9 in June and dropped further to –30.0 by July 18. These persistently negative values suggest a weakening of the Walker circulation, consistent with El Niño's development and intensification.
Models predict a 100% probability of El Niño persisting through March and a 94% chance it will remain in place until May. Furthermore, analysis suggests El Niño conditions could strengthen further during 2026 and potentially extend into early 2027. The World Meteorological Organization anticipates above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe this summer.
The strongest heat signals are expected across southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and much of Asia. Northern parts of Asia may also experience warmer-than-usual conditions, though with less certainty. In the Southern Hemisphere, warmer-than-normal conditions are forecast for many areas, with Northern South America likely to see the strongest warming. Southern Africa is also expected to experience widespread above-normal temperatures.
In Australia, warmer conditions are mainly predicted along the western, southern, and eastern coasts. Tropical regions globally are also forecast to be hotter than normal, particularly Equatorial Africa and parts of Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent. The UK Met Office suggests that El Niño could lead to a colder and wetter winter for Britain, potentially increasing the likelihood of more unsettled weather, including milder, wetter, and windier conditions in autumn and early winter, followed by colder and calmer late winter periods.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that shifts every two to seven years. These phases disrupt global temperature, winds, and precipitation patterns.