A brewing "Super El Niño" is poised to significantly impact global weather patterns this fall and winter, potentially causing a spike in food prices by as much as 16% with effects that could persist through 2028, a Goldman Sachs report released in June indicates. The analysis suggests that staple foods such as rice, sugar, palm oil, coffee, and cocoa could see price increases ranging from 50% to 100%.
This phenomenon, where warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean waters disrupt global weather systems, is expected to be particularly strong this year. It could lead to drier conditions in South and Southeast Asia, parts of Africa, Mexico, and South America, raising fears of crippling droughts and stunted harvests. There is a 70% probability that this El Niño could become the most severe on record, with some experts referring to it as "Godzilla."
The report highlights that El Niño has already begun to affect crops. India's monsoon season has been drier than usual, with some regions receiving only 25% of their normal rainfall, potentially impacting wheat, rice, and sugar cane supplies. The fishing industry is also feeling the effects, with Peru's anchovy industry reportedly crippled by El Niño-driven ocean warming.
In the United States and Europe, crucial corn harvests have already been set back by a summer of heatwaves and drought. Historically, El Niños have caused significant food system disruptions; one in the 1870s contributed to famines that killed millions across multiple continents.
The current situation could be further exacerbated by ongoing global conflicts, which have already disrupted logistics and increased oil prices. These combined factors could amplify the impact of the El Niño on global food security and prices, with full stabilization of supplies and prices potentially not occurring until 2028.