Experts are warning that an impending 'Super El Niño' event could significantly increase global temperatures later this year, potentially leading to more intense heatwaves across many parts of the world. NASA satellites have confirmed that the weather phenomenon, characterized by warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific, is currently underway.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning for people to prepare for hotter-than-normal temperatures "across nearly all parts of the globe." The strongest heat signals are anticipated in southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and large portions of Asia. Warmer conditions are also expected in many areas of the Southern Hemisphere, with Northern South America and Southern Africa projected to experience significant warming.
While El Niño's direct influence on specific regional weather patterns can vary, its overall effect is to raise global average surface temperatures. This occurs as warm waters in the Pacific spread and release heat into the atmosphere. Scientists note that current measurements show sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are rising at their fastest rate this century and could reach 1.5–2°C above normal, indicating a strong El Niño pattern.
Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to significant global temperature increases. The 1997/98 El Niño event, for example, resulted in the highest global temperatures on record at the time. Met Office climate science communicator Grahame Madge stated that the current event is "likely to be the strongest El Niño event so far this century" and comparable to the 1998 event.
During the development of El Niño, predictable disruptions in temperature, winds, and precipitation occur. In the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures rise. This leads to reduced rainfall over Indonesia and increased rainfall over the tropical Pacific. Low-level surface winds along the equator may weaken or even reverse direction.
While El Niño is a significant driver of global weather, it is not the sole factor. Other climate drivers may also influence weather patterns. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern that cycles between El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cool phase) approximately every two to seven years. The current phase is El Niño, with the potential for significant global impacts.
The WMO Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, emphasized the need to prepare for a "potentially strong El Niño event" that "will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean."