Super El Niño Could Cause Over 373,000 Additional Heat Deaths Globally, Map Shows

A new map from the Climate Impact Lab projects that the escalating Super El Niño weather phenomenon could lead to over 373,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide in the next six months. The El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker indicates that Nigeria, India, and Brazil are expected to account for a third of this projected death toll.

This forecast comes as sea surface temperatures in the East-Central Pacific's Niño 3.4 region reached 3.4 degrees Celsius (over 6 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal for the week of October 18-24, a record for the anomaly. The World Meteorological Organization suggests this phenomenon could drive temperatures more than six times higher than a typical El Niño between November and January.

The Climate Impact Lab's projections estimate that El Niño will contribute to 857,400 additional heat-related deaths from its start in June 2026 to March 2027. This figure represents an increase of over 350,000 deaths compared to projections made just a month prior. Over half of these projected deaths are expected to occur within the next six months.

Nigeria is forecast to experience the most severe impact, with over 56,000 projected heat-related casualties. India follows closely, with an estimated 55,200 individuals at risk. Other countries expected to be significantly affected include Indonesia (29,300), Brazil (19,500), and Sudan (14,700).

The Climate Impact Lab developed its projections by estimating additional heat deaths caused by the current El Niño compared to average conditions between 1996 and 2005. The study covers approximately 3,700 regions globally and is updated monthly with six-month forecasts. According to the lab, El Niño has already caused an estimated 484,500 additional deaths since June.

"Our research puts new forecasting capabilities to work to answer one of the most urgent questions we face: where is extreme heat likely to cost lives?" said Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and Professor at the University of Chicago. "Being able to anticipate the deadly effects of extreme heat is a major step forward. It means we can identify where people face the greatest risks and give decision-makers a chance to act before lives are lost."

Ripple effects from El Niño have included wildfires in Indonesia, disruptions to monsoon rains in India, and droughts in Central America. In the United States, the Western and Southern regions are bracing for increased storms and rainfall, while New York is anticipated to experience milder conditions. AccuWeather suggests New York could see up to a quarter less snow this winter compared to the previous year, with autumn-like temperatures potentially extending into January.