Super El Niño Could Cause Over 370,000 Additional Heat Deaths in Six Months, Tracker Warns

A new 'El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker' predicts that the current Super El Niño could lead to an additional 370,000 heat-related deaths globally over the next six months. The tool, developed by the Climate Impact Lab, aims to forecast where extreme heat is most likely to claim lives, allowing decision-makers to target interventions.

Nigeria, India, and Brazil are projected to bear the brunt of this crisis, accounting for over a third of the predicted heat deaths by March. The tracker estimates that Nigeria could experience approximately 56,000 deaths during this period.

Globally, the tracker estimates that as many as 484,500 deaths may have already occurred due to the weather phenomenon since it began in June, a figure supercharged by global warming. India alone is thought to have seen over 100,000 heat-related fatalities, followed by China with an estimated 85,400 deaths, and Sudan with 38,500.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has previously warned that the current El Niño is becoming "unprecedented in strength." This phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, disrupts global temperature and rainfall patterns, leading to severe droughts in some regions, heavy rainfall and flooding in others, and increased heat across vast areas.

In Europe, the tool indicates an estimated 7,200 heat-related deaths in Italy, 4,800 in France, 2,500 in Germany, and 2,300 in Spain. The United Kingdom has also been affected, with an estimated 820 deaths already attributed to El Niño's heat this summer.

While much of the United States is projected to avoid the most severe impacts, California could still see an additional 2,000 heat-related deaths. Several European cities, including Rome, Barcelona, Seville, and Malaga, are also forecast to experience further fatalities.

Scientists now project that El Niño will contribute to a total of 857,400 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026 and March 2027. This updated figure is more than 350,000 higher than an earlier estimate, reflecting hotter-than-anticipated August and September temperatures.

The researchers emphasize that the tracker's detailed data can help governments and aid organizations allocate resources and implement life-saving measures, such as early warning systems, expanded healthcare access, and the provision of cooling centers.

El Niño is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern characterized by variations in sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean. These shifts influence global weather patterns, affecting temperature, wind, and precipitation.