Super El Niño Causes Dramatic Sea Level Rise, Threatening Coastal Communities

A powerful Super El Niño event is causing unprecedented sea level rises in parts of the Pacific Ocean, with some regions experiencing surges of up to 15 inches (40cm) above normal. Scientists warn that this phenomenon could lead to severe coastal flooding and erosion, potentially leaving entire communities at risk.

The current El Niño is creating a vast bulge of warm water in the Pacific, stretching from Alaska to Chile. Experts anticipate the situation will worsen as the phenomenon intensifies, with sea levels expected to peak around November or December. According to ocean scientist Thomas Monahan of the University of Oxford, certain coastal areas from Mexico to Ecuador could see sea levels rise in a single season by an amount equivalent to 40 to 50 years of projected sea-level rise.

The greatest ocean level increases are forecast near the equator, with the Galápagos Islands possibly seeing rises of nine to 16 inches (24-40cm). Peru and Ecuador could experience up to a 13-inch (33cm) climb above normal levels. Dr. Monahan's research suggests that extreme sea-level events, normally occurring about once every 52 days in the most affected areas, could happen up to half the time during high waters in this El Niño cycle.

In California, experts are concerned about the possibility of the highest sea levels ever recorded along the state's coast. This concern is amplified by the potential for large swells and storm surges to coincide with exceptionally high tides during a period of already elevated sea levels. During the 2015-16 El Niño, waves over 49 feet (15 meters) hit the Oregon coast, setting a record for the largest waves ever measured on the U.S. shoreline.

NASA satellites have observed sea level increases of 12 to 16 inches (30-40cm) in parts of the eastern Pacific. These rises are attributed to Kelvin waves, large pulses of warm water that traveled from the western Pacific eastward. These waves reached the eastern Pacific by early April, pushing warm water towards South America and then northward along the coast towards California. Paul Roundy, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University at Albany, noted that the east Pacific is currently 15.7 inches above normal, with strong westerly winds potentially driving levels even higher.

Conversely, sea levels around Indonesia and northern Australia have fallen by six to eight inches (15-20cm) below normal. The Super El Niño is also altering the ocean's color, with the equatorial Pacific shifting from green to blue due to the disruption of nutrient flows that feed phytoplankton.

El Niño is a recurring phase of the naturally occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, which typically occurs every two to seven years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an 83% chance that the current El Niño will be the strongest since records began in 1950, with potentially catastrophic effects expected through 2027.