Life on Earth in the year 2100 could be drastically altered by significant global warming, with potential temperature increases of 4°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a new study. Scientists predict this warming could lead to extreme "fire weather" globally, threatening numerous species, and a substantial reduction in traditional livestock farming.
Researchers from Macquarie University in Sydney developed scenarios for Australia's ecosystems by 2100, focusing on the impacts of a 4°C rise. A key finding was the increasing frequency and intensity of bushfires. "Some important vegetation types, such as rainforests, depend on long intervals between hot fires," said study author Professor Mark Westoby. "As extreme fire weather becomes more common, it will become harder and harder to maintain those ecosystems."
This prediction follows a series of recent severe fire seasons globally, including Australia's "Black Summer" and Canada's record 2023 wildfire season, which have already been linked to hotter, drier conditions.
Beyond increased fire risks, the study highlights other potential transformations. Lab-grown meat and milk could largely replace livestock herds. Technologies for cultivating animal cells are advancing, with cultivated chicken already approved for sale in some countries, and companies producing milk proteins without cows. Scientists have also developed lab-grown chocolate and coffee as alternatives to crops vulnerable to climate change.
Gene-editing technologies are also projected to play a significant role, potentially used to suppress invasive species that harm native wildlife. Similar technologies are already being explored for controlling disease-carrying mosquitoes and invasive pests like mice and cane toads.
"70 years from now, many ecosystems will be substantially different," the researchers wrote in the Australian Journal of Botany. "Climate change is one driver, with associated changes in incidence of fires, extreme temperatures, droughts, floods and atmospheric carbon dioxide. But other drivers may also become important, such as large-scale replacement of livestock by cell culture products and genetic technologies for suppression of selected species."
While the study focused on Australia, the researchers stated that the identified trends are globally relevant. This outlook contrasts with efforts to mitigate climate change, such as a recent report warning that fossil fuel use must be halved by 2035 and phased out entirely by 2070 to keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
