A potent El Niño weather event carries the risk of pushing an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity in vulnerable regions globally by the end of 2027, according to a Wednesday report from the World Food Programme (WFP).
The UN agency indicated an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño, with sea surface temperatures potentially reaching their warmest levels since at least 1982, possibly making it the most powerful El Niño event since 1950.
El Niño, characterized by the warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, disrupts global weather patterns. This disruption is frequently linked to droughts in Southern Africa, delayed monsoon seasons in parts of Asia, and irregular rainfall in other areas.
"These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger," Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, stated. The WFP analysis, covering 45 countries identified as vulnerable to El Niño's impacts, projects a 22% increase in the number of food-insecure individuals, raising the total to 274 million people.
Central America and Southern Africa are anticipated to be among the most severely affected regions. The number of food-insecure individuals in Central America could rise by 83%, while Southern Africa might see an increase of nearly 75%. Both Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean could each experience over 12 million additional people facing acute food insecurity.
While global food markets were in a relatively strong position at the outset of the El Niño period due to good harvests in 2025, Bauer cautioned that ongoing conflict in the Middle East and potential weather-related crop damage could further elevate food prices. Although previous El Niño events have not typically caused significant global food price surges, regional shortages and increased costs could diminish food access for vulnerable populations.
Compounding the challenge, funding cuts from U.S. and European donors in 2025 are hindering efforts to monitor the unfolding crisis. Bauer noted a "growing drought of food-security data" essential for assessing El Niño's impact. WFP conducted approximately 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, a figure that decreased to about 800,000 in 2025, with further reductions in data collection this year attributed to funding restrictions. "At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection," Bauer said, warning that diminished monitoring could impede the timely identification of emerging food crises.
The WFP report forecasts potential rainfall deficits in parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America, and the Caribbean, while flood risks may increase in Somalia and surrounding areas. Significant impacts are also projected across South and Southeast Asia, where drought risks, erratic monsoons, and localized flooding could disrupt agricultural production.
While acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in the forecasts and regional variations in impact, the WFP stressed the need for preparedness among governments and aid organizations. Richard Choularton, director of WFP’s Climate and Resilience Service, reported that the agency has expanded anticipatory action programs in 18 countries, providing cash and other assistance to over 1.3 million people this year to mitigate the effects of extreme weather events.