October 2026 was the hottest October on record globally, with scientists warning that a record-breaking El Niño is intensifying the climate crisis. The global average surface air temperature reached 15.35°C (59.63°F), marking the third consecutive month to surpass the 1.5°C (2.7°F) threshold above pre-industrial levels. This surge in heat is attributed to a combination of human-caused climate change and an exceptionally powerful El Niño, which releases additional heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.
New figures from the Copernicus Climate Change Service reveal that sea surface temperatures also reached unprecedented levels last month. Outside of polar regions, the average sea surface temperature hit 20.95°C (69.7°F), surpassing the previous October record set in 2023. In the tropical Pacific, ocean temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region registered an anomaly of 3.21°C (5.78°F), exceeding peaks seen during previous major El Niño events.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), stated, "October has continued the pattern of remarkable global warmth, with record global and surface ocean temperatures. An exceptionally strong El Niño is adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities, while 2026 is on track to become the second calendar year above 1.5°C."
Europe experienced its second warmest October on record, with temperatures 1.49°C (2.68°F) above the long-term average. However, the continent also faced exceptionally low river flows in parts of central and eastern Europe, impacting major waterways.
In the UK, October was warmer, wetter, and sunnier than average, with temperatures 0.9°C (1.6°F) above normal. The country received approximately 13% more rain than average, exacerbated by Storms Austen and Boelo, which brought wind gusts over 70mph and significant flooding. Several fatalities were reported due to storm-related incidents, with thousands of homes experiencing power outages and disruptions to transportation.
Scientists caution that these stormy conditions could be indicative of a winter of increased climatic instability, amplified by El Niño. Professor Ilan Kelman, a disaster and climate expert at University College London, noted, "The standard results from an El Niño for the UK are absolutely a warmer and stormier autumn, and then a colder and stormier winter. What El Niño does, it increases the likelihood that we will get more storms, and that they will be more intense."
Preliminary data suggests an 80% probability that 2026 will be the second-warmest year on record, with a 20% chance it could surpass 2024 as the hottest year measured. The average global temperature for 2026 is virtually certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
