If all the world's glaciers, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica, were to melt, global sea levels could rise by more than 12 inches (32.3 cm), according to new research. This potential rise threatens coastal communities worldwide with increased flooding.
The study utilized a new AI model, IceBoost v2.0, which analyzed over seven million measurements of ice thickness collected globally. By incorporating 26 physical and geographical factors, the model estimated the thickness and volume of glaciers listed in the Randolph Glacier Inventory with improved accuracy compared to previous methods. This refined data provides a clearer understanding of the ice reserves outside the major ice sheets.
Glaciers in mountainous regions such as the Alps, Andes, and Himalayas are already experiencing significant losses due to rising global temperatures, melting faster than snowfall can replenish them. Researchers noted that understanding the precise volume of ice in these glaciers is critical for predicting their future behavior under a warming climate. Some glaciers are expected to disappear entirely within decades.
One finding from the AI model indicated that the Geikie Plateau in eastern Greenland holds nearly twice the amount of ice previously estimated, with some glaciers reaching up to 2 kilometers in thickness.
The research, published in the journal Scientific Data, will aid scientists in developing simulations of glacier changes by 2100 and their contribution to sea level rise. Beyond the threat of rising oceans, shrinking glaciers also pose a danger to global freshwater supplies. Approximately 1.9 billion people rely on glacier-fed water to some extent, and its diminishing availability could impact rivers, agriculture, and local communities. While some regions might initially see increased meltwater, they could face severe declines once their glaciers have significantly shrunk.
Globally, average sea levels have risen about 3.64 millimeters per year since 1999, with approximately 70% of this increase attributed to melting glaciers and ice sheets. Recent data suggests this rate accelerated after 2012, reaching 4.1 millimeters per year. The study emphasizes that sea level rise is a long-term consequence of warming, with effects locked in for centuries to come, even if emissions pledges are met.
Separate analyses have projected significant impacts on coastal areas. For instance, projections for the United Kingdom suggest that by 2300, over 1.7 million more homes could be underwater. Even with all emissions pledges met, a substantial number of people are expected to be at risk of coastal flooding by the end of this century and beyond, with specific regions like the Wash and Humber Estuary identified as potential 'hot spots'.
Cities and communities worldwide, from Shanghai and London to low-lying areas in Florida and Bangladesh, face risks from rising sea levels. In the United States, cities along the East and Gulf Coasts are predicted to experience a dramatic increase in tidal flooding events, with some communities facing daily tidal flooding by 2030 under moderate sea level rise scenarios.
