Southern Europe could experience temperatures as high as 50°C (122°F) in the coming weeks, according to climate experts, as the region grapples with a severe heatwave that has already fueled widespread wildfires.
Large parts of Spain have recorded temperatures reaching 44°C (111.2°F) over the past week, prompting thousands of evacuations due to wildfires in both Spain and France. Professor Bill McGuire, Emeritus of Geophysical & Climate Hazards at UCL, warned that exceeding 50°C is "perfectly possible" this summer or next, particularly as an El Niño event intensifies in the Pacific.
"It would be no surprise if 50°C was exceeded, either later this summer or next year, when the heating impact of the unprecedented El Nino building in the Pacific will be at its greatest," McGuire told the Daily Mail.
For those planning Mediterranean holidays, McGuire advised that extended periods indoors, in air-conditioned spaces, may be necessary. "I wouldn't say that they would be a total write–off, but I think holidaymakers will need to be prepared to spend a lot of time in air–conditioned hotel rooms, due to it simply being too hot to do anything outside," he said.
Last month marked the hottest June on record for western Europe, characterized by a significant heatwave in the latter half of the month. The highest air temperature ever recorded in Europe is 48.8°C (119.84°F), registered in Floridia, Sicily, on August 11, 2021. The previous record of 48.0°C (118.4°F) was set in Elefsina and Athens in 1977.
McGuire stressed the importance of caution for vulnerable populations, advising them to stay out of the sun and remain hydrated. "The old and vulnerable need to be very careful; keeping out of the sun and drinking plenty of water, as they can easily suffer and become ill in 40°C+ temperatures," he stated. He also recommended monitoring local news for wildfire reports, which are currently prevalent across parts of France, Spain, and other Mediterranean areas.
Climate change is identified as the primary driver of these extreme temperatures. "Europe is heating faster than any other continent as we continue to add more than 40 billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere every year – equivalent to the weight of 800,000 Titanics," McGuire explained.
Europe's average temperature has risen by more than 2°C compared to a century ago, with extreme high temperatures increasing at an even faster rate. Heatwaves are becoming more intense and longer-lasting, leading to thousands of fatalities annually. "But this isn't the new normal, this is just the beginning," McGuire warned. "Summers across the Mediterranean region are just going to keep on getting hotter as long as we continue to do next to nothing in terms of reining in carbon emissions."
In June, Spain reported over 1,000 deaths attributed to high temperatures. France experienced nearly a third more deaths during its hottest week of the recorded June, with official figures indicating over 2,000 excess deaths during the June heatwave and an additional 300 in May. Temperatures in France reached 40°C in western and central areas, with Paris peaking at 37°C during its third heatwave since May.
In response to the intense heat, the French government has opened "cooling centers" for at-risk individuals, including the elderly and homeless.
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF, confirmed that June was the hottest on record for western Europe and noted continued record warmth in global oceans. "Together, these records reflect a climate system continuing to accumulate heat," she said. "The result is increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems and infrastructure across Europe and beyond."