Nairobi, Kenya – Kenyans are preparing for a potentially intense El Niño rainy season, with forecasts predicting heavier-than-usual rainfall from October to December. The Meteorological Service Authority has warned that November is expected to be the peak of the season, raising concerns among residents who remember devastating floods from previous years.
Mary Okello, a resident who lost all her belongings in the 2024 floods, expressed her anxiety as the rains approach. "For decades, Mary Okello has lived on the banks of a river in Kenya that floods every rainy season. But forecasts of heavier-than-usual rainfall across East Africa this autumn have sent chills down her spine, reminding her of how she lost all her belongings in 2024," according to the report. Okello and her five children were forced to evacuate their home, watching as their belongings were washed away and their houses submerged. She has since relocated to higher ground in Nairobi's Mathare area.
The Kenya National Disaster Operations Centre has urged people in flood-prone areas to move to safety, estimating that 1.5 million people are at risk. Scientists have predicted that this El Niño event, linked to a temporary warming of the Pacific Ocean, could be one of the most intense on record.
Authorities in Nairobi and other major towns have initiated efforts to clear drainage systems and have demolished houses situated too close to the Nairobi River, enforcing a recommended 30-meter buffer zone. However, residents like Okello express concern about people rebuilding near the river.
George Simeka, an urban farmer, also recounted the harrowing experience of past floods, where neighbors' screams were heard as houses were submerged. He had attempted to improve his own flood defenses by planting trees along the riverbed, but they were removed by authorities clearing the land.
Jackline Mueni, another flood survivor, highlighted the loss of essential documents like birth certificates and identification cards, which are difficult and costly to replace. She noted the particular suffering of women and children during these events, with some lives lost. Mueni also pointed out that poverty often prevents residents from relocating to safer areas, forcing them into cramped living conditions.
A 2026 report by the World Resources Institute identified urban planning failures, wetland loss, and inadequate land-use regulation enforcement as key contributors to Nairobi's vulnerability to flooding, in addition to rainfall intensity. Nairobi County’s disaster management officer, Bramwell Simiyu, mentioned that sewage and garbage from riverside homes clog waterways, exacerbating flooding.
Cleanup operations are underway along the Mathare River to improve water flow. Victor Ojoo, a resident who lost his pigs to floods, is participating in river cleaning efforts ahead of the rainy season. Simiyu also emphasized the need for better inter-agency coordination during emergencies.
Officials have designated approximately 172 shelter locations equipped to provide food and medicine in case of evacuations. Technology is also being integrated into emergency response, with plans to use mobile alerts to disseminate timely information to residents. The Kenya Human Rights Commission has cautioned that the anticipated rains could lead to a nationwide human rights and humanitarian crisis, especially for vulnerable communities facing displacement and loss of livelihoods.