An interactive map developed by scientists from ETH Zurich and Vrije Universiteit Brussel visualizes the potential future of every glacier on Earth under different global warming scenarios. The tool, called the Global Glacier Extinction Explorer, allows users to examine the projected disappearance of glaciers based on warming levels from 1.5°C to 4°C.
According to the projections, if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, approximately half of the Earth's glaciers could disappear by the year 2100. This equates to around 2,000 glaciers vanishing annually. At a 2.7°C warming level, only 20 percent of glaciers are projected to remain, and at 4°C, just 10 percent would survive.
Dr. Lander Van Tricht, one of the scientists involved, explained that global figures on glacier loss can feel abstract. "With this website, people can zoom into their own valley or mountain region and see what different levels of global warming could mean for the glaciers they know," he stated.
The map utilizes 2024 projections and color-codes glaciers to indicate their status. Dark red signifies a glacier that is already extinct, while orange indicates a projected extinction between 2027 and 2041. Light blue dots represent glaciers expected to survive beyond 2100.
The interactive tool also allows users to click on individual glaciers to view detailed profiles, including their elevation range and projected extinction timelines across different warming scenarios. The color coding further illustrates the potential outcomes, with dark red for extinct glaciers and orange for those expected to disappear in the near future. Light blue indicates glaciers that may persist through the end of the century.
Recent events in the European Alps have already demonstrated the rapid loss of glacial ice. This year, low winter snowfall and summer heatwaves have led to significant ice loss. Bella Tola Glacier in Switzerland was declared extinct last month, aligning with projections from the 2024 study. Urirotstock Glacier, another small Swiss glacier, also met the same fate this summer.
Dr. Van Tricht noted the concrete impact of these disappearances, stating, "Our projections showed that many small Alpine glaciers are approaching the end of their lives, and we are now witnessing this process in real time." He highlighted the Bella Tola Glacier's extinction as particularly striking, as its observed disappearance fell within the model's projected window.
While the researchers focused on mapping glacial fate, a separate study last month cautioned about the consequences of glacier melt, particularly concerning sea level rise. Researchers from Ca' Foscari University of Venice estimate that glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica hold approximately 150,000 cubic kilometers of ice. Their complete melting could raise global sea levels by more than 12 inches (32.3 cm).
"Behind every disappearing glacier is a place, a history and often a community that will experience its absence," Dr. Van Tricht said. "The fact that some of the glaciers projected to disappear in our study are already vanishing today shows that glacier extinction is not a distant, end–of–century problem. It is happening now."