India has recorded its driest June in 12 years, marking the fifth-driest June since nationwide rainfall records began in 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather agency has also forecast below-normal rainfall for July, intensifying concerns about the progress of the country's crucial summer crop sowing season.
Government data reveals that the area planted with summer crops by the end of June was down nearly 23% compared to the same period in 2025. Rice sowing, a staple crop for millions, has seen a significant drop of approximately 25%, with farmers planting it across 2.58 million hectares so far this season, compared to 3.44 million hectares a year earlier. Overall, farmers had sown summer crops across 18.27 million hectares by June 30, a decrease from 23.65 million hectares during the corresponding period last year.
Millions of Indian farmers rely heavily on seasonal monsoon rains for sowing and harvesting their crops. The southwest monsoon, which typically accounts for about 70% of India's annual rainfall, usually begins in the southern state of Kerala around June 1 and moves northward. This year, the monsoon's onset was delayed by three days, and its progression slowed across parts of western India for approximately two weeks, hindering field preparation and planting in several agricultural regions.
Nearly half of India's net sown farmland lacks assured irrigation and is largely dependent on rainfall, making the timing and distribution of the monsoon critical for agricultural output. Experts warn that weaker monsoon rains could reduce domestic oilseed production, potentially increasing the country's reliance on imported edible oils.
Despite the current challenges, the full impact on harvests remains uncertain. The monsoon season continues until September, allowing time for rainfall to potentially recover and for farmers to make up for some of the delayed sowing. Furthermore, India entered the season with substantial rice stocks in government warehouses. As of July 1, government rice stocks stood at 39.7 million tonnes, nearly three times the official buffer requirement of 13.5 million tonnes, providing a cushion against potential short-term supply disruptions. An additional 29.8 million tonnes of rice are expected once paddy already procured from farmers is milled.