Scientists have developed a new tool, the Global Glacier Extinction Explorer, that projects the potential disappearance of nearly half of the world's glaciers by the year 2100 if global warming reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius. The interactive map, created by researchers at ETH Zurich and Vrije Universiteit Brussel, allows users to visualize glacier extinction timelines under different temperature increases.
According to the 2024 projections by ETH Zurich researchers, at a warming level of 1.5°C, approximately 2,000 glaciers could disappear annually. The tool uses color-coding to indicate a glacier's projected fate: dark red for already extinct, orange for extinction between 2027 and 2041, and light blue for glaciers expected to survive beyond 2100.
At higher warming levels, the outlook becomes more severe. With 2.7°C of warming, only about 20% of glaciers are projected to remain. A catastrophic scenario of 4°C warming could lead to the extinction of 90% of the world's glaciers, leaving only 10% standing.
"Every fraction of a degree matters," stated Dr. Lander Van Tricht, who analyzed the research. The study emphasizes that the problem is not a distant future concern but is occurring presently. Evidence of this is seen in the European Alps, which have experienced substantial ice loss due to low winter snowpack and extreme summer heatwaves.
The Bella Tola Glacier near Saint-Luc, Switzerland, was declared extinct last month, aligning with predictions from the 2024 study. Similarly, the Urirotstock Glacier in Switzerland was declared extinct this past summer. Dr. Van Tricht noted these instances make glacier extinction feel "concrete."
In 2025, Swiss glaciers saw a significant melt rate, with a 3% drop in total volume. Over the past decade, ice mass in Switzerland has decreased by one-quarter. Italian researchers estimate that glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica hold approximately 150,000 cubic kilometers of ice, which could raise global sea levels by at least 12 inches if melted.