Experts are observing a striking paradox in global wildfire activity: extreme fires are escalating in regions like Europe and North America, yet overall worldwide burning statistics are at a historic low. This divergence is primarily attributed to significant fire reduction in Africa and Asia, driven by evolving human practices and land use.
In Europe, Spain has experienced its largest wildfire on record, scorching over 193 square miles (500 square kilometers). Wildfires across the continent have approached 2025's all-time high. Similarly, in Canada and the United States, the land burned by wildfires this summer is at least 25% higher than the 10-year average and more than double the extent seen decades ago. The smoke from these fires has blanketed large parts of the continent, leading to hazardous air quality.
Fire scientists characterize these wildfires as worsening in terms of size, intensity, speed, and frequency. The increased extremity of wildfires in various parts of the world is a significant concern.
Despite these localized intensifications, global emissions from fires, a key indicator of their prevalence, have reached record lows as of July. This decrease is largely due to reduced fire activity in Africa and Asia, according to the European climate center Copernicus. Fire management practices, agricultural changes, and demographic shifts in these regions have contributed to a dramatic decline in fire activity over the last 25 years, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa which historically accounts for a substantial portion of global fire activity.
Traditionally, Africa's savanna grasslands generated large annual fires, significantly influencing global totals. However, increased land conversion for housing and farming, coupled with more effective fire-prevention measures, has led to a reduction in these fires. In Asia and the Amazon, fires often used for agricultural land clearing have also seen a decline, suggesting that human demographic changes are a primary driver of these global trends.
Conversely, the extreme fires dominating headlines in North America and Europe are linked to climate change. The burning of fossil fuels is contributing to hotter and drier conditions, creating an environment conducive to more intense fires. Warmer temperatures accelerate the drying of landscapes, while altered nighttime temperatures reduce the recovery time for forests and fire response efforts. This has led to an extended burning season, particularly in northern forests.
The impact of these escalating fires is amplified in areas with higher population density and greater property values. While North America has historically excelled at fire suppression, the increasing intensity and frequency of fires due to climate change are challenging these capabilities.
Looking ahead, the developing super strong El Niño is expected to influence fire activity. This weather pattern typically triggers more fires in tropical regions, including the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and the Western Pacific. While El Niño may bring more rain and fewer fires to the U.S. West, it can also lead to increased grass growth in desert areas, creating fuel for future grass fires.
Regardless of El Niño's specific impacts, experts emphasize the need for improved planning and adaptation strategies in North America and Europe to cope with worsening wildfire conditions. These strategies may include the increased use of prescribed burns to manage excess vegetation.