Fossil fuel consumption worldwide must be cut in half by 2035 to prevent catastrophic climate damage, according to a new report from Climate Analytics. The analysis, which models the measures needed to keep global warming below the 1.5°C limit established by the Paris Agreement, indicates that fossil fuel use must be entirely phased out by 2070.
"Fossil fuels are still pouring oil on the climate fire," stated Dr. Neil Grant, Senior Expert, Mitigation Pathways at Climate Analytics. "Our analysis is clear: we need to cut fossil fuel use sharply this decade, halve it by 2035, and drive it down to real zero by 2070."
The report arrives as greenhouse gas emissions have reached an all-time high, with 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 released in 2024. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has now reached 425.6 parts per million, the highest level ever recorded. Methane and nitrous oxide levels have also hit record highs.
Required Reductions and Pathways
The Climate Analytics model shows that fossil fuel production and use, which peaked last year, must fall by 20 percent by 2030 and by 50 percent by 2035. To achieve a 20 percent reduction by 2030, production and use would need to decrease by 4-5 percent annually from the current year. The researchers emphasized that this reduction necessitates avoiding all new oil and gas fields.
"New oil and gas fields are incompatible with any credible transition away from fossil fuels," said Bill Hare, CEO at Climate Analytics. "Gas use needs to be reduced rapidly in the short term to half of 2023 levels by 2035. And yet governments and fossil fuel companies continue to pour billions into expanding production, particularly of fossil gas. This is a fast-track pathway to climate chaos."
Electrification is identified as the central driver for this transition. By 2050, electricity is projected to supply nearly two-thirds of global energy demand, displacing fossil fuels in power generation, transportation, buildings, and industry. The report also suggests minimizing the use of carbon capture and storage technologies.
"If we slow the phase-out, we are left with two dangerous options: rely even more heavily on carbon removal and carbon capture technologies that are limited and uncertain or accept higher levels of temperature overshoot and climate damage," Hare explained. "The safer route is a rapid, planned phase-out of fossil fuels, powered by clean electrification."
The Paris Agreement Context
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an effort to limit it to 1.5°C. This more ambitious goal is considered critical to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. The agreement also calls for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, followed by rapid reductions in line with scientific understanding.
Despite efforts towards green energy, total greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, though at a slower pace than in the early 2000s. The report from Climate Analytics highlights the urgent need for immediate and drastic action to align with the 1.5°C target. The current trajectory of emissions suggests a significant risk of exceeding this critical climate threshold, leading to more severe climate impacts worldwide.
