Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, according to a new report by the Global Carbon Project, marking a potential turning point in the efforts to combat climate change.
Researchers attribute this projected decline to the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, alongside the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, particularly led by China. The study, published in Nature Climate Change, forecasts that total CO2 emissions from coal, oil, and gas will be 38.2 billion tonnes this year, a slight decrease from 2025 levels. A significant 1.9% drop in emissions from oil is expected to be a major contributor to this overall decline, partly linked to disruptions in global energy markets.
According to the report, clean technologies are now meeting almost two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand. However, the report's authors, comprising over 140 international scientists, caution that the world is far from being out of danger. Emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, are forecast to rise, meaning total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, an increase from 42.8 billion tonnes last year.
The remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C is now critically low, estimated at only 150 billion tonnes. At current emission rates, this budget could be exhausted in less than four years.
"A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution," stated lead author Professor Pierre Friedlingstein from the University of Exeter. "The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies."
China is expected to cut its emissions by 0.9% this year, while the United States is projected to reduce emissions by 1.3%. Emissions across the European Union are forecast to fall by 1.5%, and Japan is also expected to record a 1% decline. In contrast, India's emissions are projected to rise by 4.4%, reflecting its continued economic growth and increasing energy demand.
Emissions from international aviation and shipping are both projected to decrease by 1%. The report also notes that an exceptionally strong El Niño could drive CO2 levels in the atmosphere to record highs in 2027, as warned by the Met Office, potentially making it harder to stay within the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, emphasized that a one-year drop in emissions does not confirm a peak unless driven by structural change. He stated that while the accelerated deployment of clean energy technologies is pushing emissions down in many countries, the changes are not yet sufficient to guarantee a sustained decline in global emissions.