This year's El Niño phenomenon is rapidly strengthening and is expected to break records for its intensity, according to an expert at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Tim Stockdale, an El Niño specialist, stated that forecast models consistently point to an "extreme" event, a strength not seen in over three decades of tracking.
"I think it's absolutely true to say we've never had a forecast of an El Niño that was so strong and so consistent across (forecast) models," Stockdale said. He indicated that it would be "a very, very big surprise" if the event did not set new records. NASA has confirmed the El Niño is underway, observing sea surface height changes across the Pacific.
El Niño is characterized by warmer water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which alters global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. While the phenomenon typically peaks between November and February, its impact on global temperatures often follows later. The combination of this year's El Niño with human-induced climate change is a significant concern. The previous El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 reached an all-time high.
Experts forecast that El Niño will continue to strengthen from July to September as waters in the equatorial Pacific warm.
Global Temperature Impacts
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that people should prepare for hotter-than-normal temperatures "across nearly all parts of the globe" this summer. The strongest warming signals are anticipated across southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and much of Asia. In the Southern Hemisphere, northern South America and southern Africa are expected to experience significant warming.
New data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicates that June was the hottest recorded for western Europe and the second hottest globally. "June 2026 underscored how profoundly the climate is changing," said Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF. "Western Europe recorded its warmest June on record, and continued record warmth in the global ocean. The result is increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems and infrastructure across Europe and beyond."
Regional Effects
NASA has predicted widespread effects from this El Niño, including wetter conditions in the American Southwest and drought in western Pacific countries. However, extreme heat is expected almost everywhere. In Australia, warmer conditions are forecast along the coasts, while tropical regions are also expected to be hotter than normal.
Asia, particularly India, may experience drier-than-average conditions and suppressed monsoons, prompting agricultural officials to prepare contingency plans for farmers. In contrast, parts of the Horn of Africa might see increased rainfall, while southern, west, central, and eastern Africa usually face drier conditions. Western South America, including coastal Peru and Ecuador, could experience increased rainfall, leading to risks of flooding and landslides. Conversely, northern Brazil might face drier conditions, raising wildfire risks in the Amazon.
The UK is also anticipating potential impacts. Simon Culling of the UK's Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) noted that the current predictions could lead to hotter summers in 2026 and 2027 and an increased risk of significant cold spells in the winter of 2026/27. The UK experienced an exceptionally hot, sunny, and humid August during the development of a previous strong El Niño in 1997/98. In June 2026, the UK's Met Office reported the hottest ever June, with average temperatures reaching 17.1°C, and a peak recording of 37.7°C.
El Niño is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which alternates between El Niño (warm phase), La Niña (cool phase), and neutral conditions every two to seven years. These shifts disrupt global atmospheric patterns, affecting temperature, wind, and precipitation worldwide.
