NASA satellites have confirmed that an El Niño weather phenomenon is underway, a development that experts warn could lead to hotter temperatures globally, including potentially in the United Kingdom. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has cautioned that people should prepare for hotter-than-normal temperatures across nearly all parts of the globe.
This El Niño event is predicted to have widespread effects, bringing wetter conditions to the American Southwest and drought to countries in the western Pacific. However, experts anticipate extreme heat in many other regions. While the direct influence on British weather is indirect, a strong El Niño could amplify the heating effects of climate change and raise global temperatures.
Simon Culling, a data collector for the UK’s Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO), suggested that if current predictions hold, the El Niño phase could lead to hotter summers in 2026 and 2027, while also increasing the risk of significant cold spells in the winter of 2026/27. Recently, the UK experienced a record-breaking heat day, with a temperature of 36.1°C recorded in Gosport, Hampshire, surpassing previous records from 1976 and 1957.
Meteorologists suggest that the intensity of this El Niño event may be comparable to the 1997/98 event, which saw global temperatures reach their highest on record at the time. During that period, the UK experienced an exceptionally hot, sunny, and humid August characterized by heatwaves. Grahame Madge, a climate science communicator at the Met Office, described the potential El Niño as likely to be a significant event, potentially the strongest this century and comparable to the 1998 event.
El Niño is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern that cycles between a hot El Niño phase and a cool La Niña phase every two to seven years. During the El Niño phase, warm waters in the Pacific spread out, raising the Earth's average surface temperature. Current measurements indicate that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are rising faster than at any other time this century, potentially reaching 1.5–2°C above normal, which is a strong indicator of a powerful El Niño pattern forming.
The WMO forecasts that the strongest heat signals will be across southern and western North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, North Africa, and much of Asia. Warmer-than-normal conditions are also expected across many areas in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Northern South America and Southern Africa. In Australia, warmer conditions are primarily forecast along the western, southern, and eastern coasts. Tropical regions, including Equatorial Africa and parts of Southeast Asia, are also predicted to experience hotter-than-normal conditions.
According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, preparations should be made for a potentially strong El Niño event, which is expected to exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.