The number of days with weather conditions conducive to dangerous wildfires in Europe has more than doubled since the 1980s, a trend scientists warn is making the "apocalyptic infernos" increasingly likely. France and Spain are currently experiencing some of the most severe wildfires in recent memory, forcing widespread evacuations and destroying homes and land.
A study by researchers from the University of Groningen analyzed wildfire records alongside weather and climate data from 1981 to 2025. They focused on "fire weather" – periods characterized by hot, dry, and windy conditions that enable wildfires to ignite easily, spread rapidly, and burn intensely. The findings indicate that while the overall number of wildfires has decreased in some regions, the conditions under which they occur are significantly more dangerous.
The intensity of fire-promoting weather has increased by up to 50 percent in parts of France and Spain over the past decade compared to the 1981-2010 period. More strikingly, summers that previously saw fewer than 10 days of severe fire weather now experience around 25. This shift is attributed to rising global temperatures and increasingly dry conditions, which leave vegetation parched and highly flammable. Scientists highlight that hotter summers, reduced moisture, stronger winds, more frequent heatwaves, and drier vegetation all contribute to this heightened risk.
These hazardous conditions are particularly pronounced across Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, and Greece. The study notes that a small spark can now more easily develop into a major wildfire due to the desiccated state of the landscape. Recent incidents include a wildfire west of Bordeaux, France, described as the largest since 1949, which has destroyed 240 homes, and fires near Madrid that have consumed approximately 190,000 acres.
Despite the worsening weather conditions, the annual number of fires across the five studied countries has fallen by about 40 percent over the last decade. Researchers attribute this to improvements in firefighting techniques, forest management, public awareness campaigns, and efforts to prevent accidental ignitions. However, they caution that the fires that do ignite are more challenging to control due to the extreme weather.
The study also identified links between Europe's fire weather patterns and global climate phenomena, such as El Niño. Periods of El Niño have often preceded particularly dangerous fire weather in specific regions of Europe. With the current El Niño event expected to be exceptionally strong, there are concerns about potentially worse fires in the near future. Experts have also indicated that temperatures of 50°C (122°F) are possible in southern Europe in the coming weeks.
To mitigate future risks, researchers emphasize the need for proactive measures beyond simply extinguishing fires. Recommendations include expanding controlled burns and implementing land management practices that enhance forest resilience to hotter, drier conditions. They assert that continued global warming will likely intensify fire weather unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced. The study concludes that fewer, but potentially more destructive, fires may become the new norm across the region.