El Niño Supercharges Australia's Summer Heat, Potentially Leading to Hundreds of Deaths
Scientists warn of a 'postcard from the future' as a powerful El Niño event is expected to drive temperatures significantly above average, increasing heat-related mortality.
Hundreds of Australians could die in the coming months as a potent "super El Niño" event is projected to push temperatures well above normal, according to researchers at the Climate Impact Lab. The scientists forecast an additional 260 heat-related deaths across Australia between September and February, with nearly half of those expected to occur in New South Wales.
The weather phenomenon is anticipated to raise temperatures approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius above average during this six-month period. The report, released Tuesday, also predicts 61 additional heat deaths in Queensland, 72 in Western Australia, 12 in South Australia, and three in the Northern Territory. Victoria is projected to see a net decrease of 13 heat deaths compared to the 1996-2025 data.
Globally, the authors of the report predict an extra 451,000 deaths in the first nine months of the super El Niño event. "El Niño is effectively pushing us into the future – exposing us to temperatures that won't be the norm for another two decades – before we have time to adapt and protect ourselves," they stated.
These anomalously warm conditions are described as a "postcard from the future," resembling temperatures climate change is projected to deliver 20 years from now. With current forecasts indicating El Niño could persist through spring 2027, the number of heat-related deaths is expected to rise further, with impacts lingering into the winter months.
The report also warned that El Niño will cause a 44% increase in "extremely hot" days compared to a typical year. Poorer regions are expected to be disproportionately affected, with an estimated 31,400 deaths in Nigeria alone and significant numbers predicted for Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. The authors highlighted that while these temperatures feel anomalous now, they are likely to become the norm within a few decades due to climate change.
To mitigate these risks, the report calls for emergency funds to be redirected to the most affected areas. Recommendations include implementing heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations, establishing cooling centers and hydration stations, and enacting worker protections. "Preparing for a hotter future will require a far more granular, continually updated understanding of what saves lives across different regions, climates, and health systems," the authors emphasized.
The Bureau of Meteorology has indicated that temperatures are likely to remain above average for most of the country through the end of the year, with its climate models suggesting the developing El Niño could be the strongest on record. This forecast aligns with projections of drier and hotter conditions.
