Super El Niño conditions have officially begun in the tropical Pacific and are strengthening rapidly, according to scientists, who warn of potentially catastrophic extreme weather events worldwide. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that the phenomenon will grow into a strong event between July and September, with ocean surface temperatures showing consistent and significant warming in key central and eastern Pacific regions.
Experts anticipate that water temperatures in these critical areas will exceed 2°C (3.6°F) above average. The WMO expects El Niño to continue strengthening through the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, impacting numerous regions globally. Other ocean areas, such as the equatorial Atlantic Basin, are also forecast to remain well above average.
This natural warming cycle is expected to exacerbate the effects of climate change, leading to increased risks of extreme weather. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the intensifying El Niño will heighten the chances of drought, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves on land and in marine environments across many parts of the world.
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring climate pattern that significantly influences year-to-year weather variations. It shifts between a cooling La Niña phase and a warming El Niño phase every two to seven years. During El Niño, weakened trade winds allow warm water to accumulate in the tropical Pacific, potentially raising global average temperatures and disrupting weather patterns.
Scientists have confirmed that Pacific ocean surface temperatures have surpassed the threshold for El Niño to begin. Over 80 percent of the equatorial Pacific is already showing above-normal sea surface temperatures, indicating a rapidly intensifying event. El Niño typically peaks between November and February, with its strongest influence on global temperatures felt in the year following its onset.
The specific impacts of El Niño vary based on its intensity, timing, and interaction with other climate events, but generally lead to increased global temperatures and extreme weather. The WMO's predictions indicate an overwhelming likelihood of above-average land temperatures in nearly all populated regions of the Earth.
Recent extreme heat events, such as record-breaking temperatures in the UK and deadly heatwaves in France, are not directly caused by the current El Niño, but experts say the intensifying weather pattern will contribute to extreme heat globally this summer. Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit noted that an intensifying El Niño will add further heat to the climate system. While its influence on British weather is indirect, a strong El Niño could raise global temperatures, amplify climate change effects, and reduce rainfall in Northern Europe. Some forecasts suggest potential for hotter summers and an increased risk of significant cold spells in the UK in the coming years.