The arrival of El Niño has been officially declared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with projections indicating a strong, potentially "super" event that could significantly alter weather patterns across the United States throughout 2026 and into 2027.
AccuWeather's lead long-range forecaster, Paul Pastelok, described the predicted weather shifts as a "corridor of chaos," extending from the South to the Mid-Atlantic, which could experience torrential downpours, flooding, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes. Cities from Houston to Atlanta and Orlando, along with parts of the Mid-Atlantic, are particularly concerning, especially later in the year.
This El Niño is being compared by scientists to a historic event in 1877, which caused widespread droughts, crop failures, and contributed to global famines that killed an estimated 50 million people. The current event is expected to intensify, with NOAA stating there is a 63% chance it will become a "super" weather event between November 2026 and January 2027. A "super" El Niño is characterized by sea surface temperatures projected to be 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit or more above normal.
Southern US and Coastal Impacts
The warmer Pacific waters are expected to pump more heat and moisture into the atmosphere, leading to increased rainfall in the southern U.S. This forecast follows a severe flood season in 2025, which saw at least 135 deaths in Texas due to flash floods. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and local meteorologists are urging residents in storm- and flood-prone areas to prepare emergency supplies.
Pastelok noted that California and Arizona could also face an unusually wet year, with the potential for a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall in California due to the Pacific heat spike combined with El Niño. Unusual flooding, even out of season, is possible in Southern California, Phoenix, and Tucson.
Northern US and Wildfire Concerns
Conversely, states north of the shifted jet stream, including the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, are anticipated to experience hotter and drier conditions. This increased drought risk, combined with strong winds and flammable vegetation, raises concerns about dangerous wildfires. Pastelok indicated that while most wildfires are human-caused, the El Niño-induced drought could exacerbate their spread, potentially affecting areas like Seattle, Portland, Billings, and Boise.
Northeastern Weather Patterns
In the latter half of 2026, the Northeast and New England may experience more nor'easters. However, due to a warming climate and fewer cold air outbreaks, these events are more likely to manifest as rainstorms rather than snowstorms in major cities like New York and Boston.
Long-Term Impacts
Pastelok cautioned that the effects of this El Niño could linger, with atmospheric lag potentially extending impacts through 2027. This could lead to significant drought and heat, possibly more pronounced the year after the El Niño event dissipates. "It may come and haunt you next year," he warned. An El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which disrupts global weather patterns.