Scientists from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have issued a stark warning: El Niño is "firmly established" and intensifying into a very strong event with a near 100% probability of causing global disruptions through at least February.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the phenomenon as "being supersized before our eyes," emphasizing that "the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up." He added that rising sea surface temperatures and climbing global temperatures place the world in the "danger zone of extreme weather." The WMO's forecasts predict above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas from September to November.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle that shifts between warm El Niño years and cool La Niña years, typically occurring every two to seven years. During an El Niño phase, trade winds weaken or reverse, preventing cool ocean waters from upwelling off the west coast of South America. This leads to warm water accumulating near the surface, raising average global temperatures and disrupting weather patterns.
The WMO reported that sea surface temperatures in the El Niño's core region are already significantly above average and continue to rise. In recent months, Pacific Ocean temperatures have exceeded normal levels by more than 2°C, with some underwater areas reaching a staggering 8°C above normal. While El Niño typically begins developing between March and June and peaks between November and February, its effects on global temperatures can extend into the following year.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that El Niño, which translates to "the boy child" in Spanish, has the potential to deliver a "massive blow to communities and economies." She highlighted existing disruptions from droughts and floods, which are expected to increase as El Niño intensifies.
In the United Kingdom, forecasts suggest a cold and stormy winter. Warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific are expected to send "waves" through the atmosphere, altering the jet stream's usual path. This could lead to storms being directed towards the UK along powerful wind currents. While the exact timing of these storms remains uncertain, current predictions indicate an increased likelihood of severe weather.
A separate study published recently suggests that El Niño events have been strengthening over decades. Researchers from the University of Michigan analyzed coral samples from the Galapagos Islands to assess past El Niño events. Their findings indicate that El Niños in the last 40 years have been nearly 40% stronger than those in the preceding thousand years. Lead author Professor Julia Cole stated that current El Niño events are not typical when compared to the last millennium, suggesting a correlation between the strength of El Niño and the warming of global temperatures.