East Asia is experiencing an extraordinary wave of intense and unpredictable typhoons, exacerbated by the El Niño weather pattern, which has caused dozens of deaths, shuttered airports, and destroyed crops and infrastructure.
In October, Taiwan braced for Typhoon Champi, a storm large enough to envelop the island. With winds of 295 km/h (193 mph), it had the potential to flatten homes and create destructive waves. While it ultimately skirted the island, it caused widespread flight cancellations in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan. The Philippines' Batanes archipelago experienced significant coastal flooding, and 15,000 homes lost power in Japan's Okinawa islands.
El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, involves warm waters pooling in the eastern Pacific, altering wind patterns and driving extreme weather globally. Occurring every two to seven years and lasting about a year, this year's El Niño is forecast to be exceptionally strong and likely persist until February or March.
Earlier in the season, Japan faced two simultaneous storms, Typhoon Mekkhala and Severe Tropical Storm Higos, leading to the evacuation of one million people. In July, Tropical Storm Narra grazed China's southern coast, submerging villages and displacing tens of thousands. In August, Super Typhoon Dolphin churned across the Pacific for 16 days before making landfall in eastern China, resulting in heavy floods and numerous casualties. Shortly after, Typhoon Saudel struck three southeastern Chinese cities in a week, disrupting transportation and forcing evacuations.
The Pacific Ocean, heated to record levels by El Niño, is now a hub of typhoon activity. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) metric for East Asia is projected to be nearly double the 30-year average. Additionally, El Niño is shifting wind patterns, causing typhoons to form further east and remain over warm waters for longer, thus intensifying.
Record sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, reaching 4C above normal in November, are fueling these extreme conditions. China's climate agency warns of continued rising sea surface temperatures over the next three months due to El Niño, raising concerns in a region already battered by storms.
Simulations of warmer conditions on past storms, like Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, suggest that higher temperatures could increase total accumulated rainfall by up to 26%. This is a critical concern for countries like the Philippines, where flooding is a major disaster risk.
Nations are taking steps to prepare for the immediate impacts. Japan has advised citizens to stockpile essentials and secure outdoor property. China is identifying vulnerable areas and upgrading its warning systems. The Philippines and its neighbors are increasing support for farmers to mitigate disruptions to food production, particularly rice.
Long-term solutions remain uncertain. The United Nations Development Programme in Asia and the Pacific emphasizes that the window for action on El Niño is narrowing, with community resilience being determined years in advance by infrastructure, water management, and social protection systems. This El Niño, they note, should drive efforts to build greater resilience.