El Niño has officially arrived, and scientists are warning that the global climate phenomenon could intensify into a "Godzilla" or "Super" El Niño, potentially matching the severity of a catastrophic event in 1877 that contributed to the deaths of over 50 million people.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared on Thursday that El Niño conditions are present in the Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
Ocean conditions have warmed to the point where El Niño is active. NOAA officials confirmed that sea surface temperatures are at least +0.9°F above average and are expected to remain elevated. Climate scientists are concerned that this event could push sea surface temperatures to 3.6°F above normal, a threshold classified as "strong" by NOAA. There is a 63 percent chance of El Niño becoming "very strong" between November 2026 and January 2027.
This El Niño is anticipated to be one of the strongest since 1950, and some experts fear it could rival the 1877 event. That historical El Niño triggered severe droughts and crop failures globally, leading to widespread famine and disease outbreaks, including malaria, plague, and cholera, which affected already weakened populations. Researchers estimate that the resulting scarcity and disease killed up to 4 percent of the Earth's population at the time, a toll that would equate to at least 250 million deaths today.
Climate historians consider the 1877 event one of the first "truly global climate disasters." It caused severe drought and forest fires in parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia. India experienced a disappearance of its monsoon rains, while Northern China suffered devastating dry spells leading to harvest failures. Brazil's rivers dried up, and its agriculture collapsed.
While every El Niño event differs, its impact on the United States typically includes warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern half of the country and parts of Alaska. Cooler conditions are generally observed across the southern states, particularly from Texas eastward. The pattern also tends to shift storm tracks, increasing the likelihood of wetter-than-average weather in California, the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and much of the Southeast. Conversely, drier conditions are often noted in the northern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes, and parts of the Mississippi Valley.
NOAA data revealed that the central Pacific region monitored for El Niño has sea surface temperatures 1.3°F above normal, exceeding the El Niño threshold. In the eastern Pacific, ocean waters are already 3.8°F above average, a pattern indicative of a strong El Niño's development.
"Most El Ninos begin in the fall, so this is developing much earlier and faster than expected," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Chad Merrill.
El Niño influences the U.S. jet stream by pushing it farther south, bringing wetter conditions to the southern and Gulf states. "It will intensify drought in the Northwest and northern Rockies and lessen drought intensity and coverage in the Southwest," Merrill added. "It won’t do anything to eliminate the long-term drought in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic until we get to late fall and early winter."
Deepti Singh, an associate professor at Washington State University, noted that "simultaneous multiyear droughts similar to those in the 1870s could happen again." She also cautioned, "What is different now is that our atmosphere and oceans are substantially warmer than they were in the 1870s, which means the associated extremes could be more extreme."
Despite the potential for widespread drought and other extreme weather, meteorologists suggest this El Niño could help mitigate a devastating Atlantic hurricane season, predicting fewer named storms and fewer tropical cyclones developing into major hurricanes. However, AccuWeather's Lead Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok stressed that the public should remain vigilant. "It only takes one storm, and then boom!" he stated, reminding that even during an El Niño, a major hurricane can still make landfall. He cited Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm that devastated South Florida in 1992, as an example of a powerful hurricane occurring during an El Niño summer.