Britain is bracing for potential flooding as heavy rain is forecast to break a prolonged period of extreme heat and drought. Wessex Water has announced its first hosepipe ban since the summer of 1976, affecting 1.4 million customers across Bath, Somerset, Dorset, and Wiltshire, effective from midnight on Tuesday.
Some areas are expected to receive their first significant rainfall in a long time after weeks of dry weather plunged large parts of the country into drought. Southern England experienced its driest July on record, and England and Wales recorded their driest July since records began almost 200 years ago. The cumulative rainfall deficit in some regions, like the South East, is equivalent to a month's worth of rain.
This shift follows a summer marked by intense heatwaves, with temperatures reaching 38.1C (100.6F) in London last Thursday, the hottest day of the year. The extended dry spell has also led to a surge in wildfires, with approximately 36 blazes burning over a recent weekend and 11 declared major incidents. One wildfire in Stourbridge destroyed or damaged 37 homes.
Forecasters predict a rainy front will move from Northern Ireland and Scotland towards southern England and Wales starting today, bringing cooler temperatures closer to seasonal averages. However, experts warn that the very dry and hard ground is less able to absorb rainwater quickly, increasing the risk of surface water flooding, particularly if showers become intense. Professor Liz Stephens, an expert in climate risks and resilience at the University of Reading, noted that flooding can still occur during drought conditions, and baked soils can exacerbate surface water flooding.
While the anticipated rainfall may help reduce immediate wildfire risks, it is unlikely to be sufficient to lift all areas out of drought. Experts suggest it could take many weeks of sustained rainfall for vegetation to recover and for rivers and reservoirs to return to normal levels. Five of the 31 reservoirs across England and Wales are at exceptionally low levels, with seven more also significantly depleted, according to government sources. This prolonged dry weather has strained water resources, with water demand in the Wessex Water region nearly a third higher than average for this time of year.