Britain is shifting from drought conditions and wildfires to a risk of flash flooding as torrential rain and thunderstorms are forecast across much of the country. The ground, hardened by successive heatwaves, is expected to struggle to absorb the incoming precipitation, leading to potential surface water flooding.
The Met Office has warned that the heaviest and most thundery downpours are predicted to move south from Scotland on Thursday. Mike Silverstone, the Met Office's deputy chief forecaster, cautioned that intense showers could lead to flooding on the very dry and hard ground, though he noted that some areas might remain dry.
This change in weather follows a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions that led to drought declarations in two-thirds of England and all of Wales. The heatwaves fueled wildfires, including one that destroyed 19 homes in Stourbridge, West Midlands, and prompted the government to issue the first national emergency alert for wildfires to mobile phones.
July was the driest on record for England and Wales, with some areas experiencing nearly two months without rain. The extreme heat also saw temperatures reach 38.1C (100.6F) on a recent Thursday, nearing the all-time record. Wildfires broke out across the country, exacerbated by tinder-dry conditions.
While the rain may offer some relief from the drought, temperatures are expected to be mild, reaching the low 20s Celsius (70s Fahrenheit) in southern England and Wales and the high teens (60s F) in northern areas. These are considered more typical for a British summer.
Thundery showers are anticipated to continue into Friday before giving way to a drier Saturday. Widespread rain began late Monday, spreading southeast, with further showers on Tuesday, particularly in northern regions. Some patchy drizzle is expected to clear from the southeast on Wednesday morning, followed by sunshine in many areas.
Despite the current unsettled forecast, the possibility of further hot spells remains. The Met Office has indicated that warm, humid spells are possible through the rest of August, and another heatwave could occur in September. "Largely dry and settled" weather is predicted for the weekend and the first half of next week, though showers could affect the far southeast, with temperatures unlikely to exceed the 20s.
The recent dry spell has resulted in water use restrictions for over 27 million people, with Wessex Water implementing a hosepipe ban. The country's reservoirs and water reserves have been significantly depleted.