Australia must end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035 and close all coal-fired power stations within a decade to meet its climate commitments, according to a report released by the research institute Climate Analytics.
The 183-page report, titled "A Fossil-Free Australia," models a strategy for the nation to keep global warming as close to 1.5 degrees Celsius as possible, aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study was released less than two weeks after the United Nations warned that global emissions are on track to exceed the agreement's limits.
The report suggests that Australia could reduce its residual emissions by 71% by 2050 through immediate action. This includes accelerating renewable energy projects, implementing tougher limits on industrial emissions, and planning for the cessation of fossil fuel exports.
Specific recommendations include ending coal-fired power generation by 2034, halving oil demand by 2035, and cutting domestic gas demand by 90% by 2040. To support these targets, renewable energy generation would need to reach 87% nationwide by 2030, increasing to 96% by 2035 and 100% by 2050.
"We've done the study for Australia as part of a global effort to look at what countries need to do to meet the Paris Agreement goals," said Climate Analytics chief executive Bill Hare. "We've seen many disasters around the world recently, including the catastrophe in Nepal, and all of these things are driven very much by the acceleration of global warming."
While energy sector reforms are projected to have the most significant impact on greenhouse gas emissions, the transport sector also requires substantial changes. Beyond phasing out new petrol and diesel vehicle sales by 2035, the report calls for aviation and shipping to transition from fossil fuels to sustainable alternatives like aviation fuel and ammonia by 2045.
Report author Thomas Houlie highlighted the need for additional policies to address emissions from heavy road freight, which he described as a "blind spot" for governments. He emphasized that the electrification of transport is critical to prevent it from becoming the highest-emitting sector within decades.
The report also advocates for reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism to address industrial emissions and a significant reduction in coal and gas exports by 2040.