Australians are being advised to prepare for a hotter and drier summer as a powerful "Super El Niño" event intensifies, increasing the likelihood of bushfires and drought. The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared the "Super El Niño" in June, following four months of sustained warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The agency has cautioned that this event could rank among the strongest weather phenomena recorded since 1950, potentially leading to reduced rainfall and elevated temperatures across Australia. Seasonal outlooks from the Bureau predict below-average rainfall for most of eastern Australia between August and October, with higher-than-normal temperatures expected nationwide during this period.
Forecasters note that precisely predicting the impact of such a strong El Niño remains challenging. While the strength of an El Niño doesn't always correlate directly with the severity of its effects, the current magnitude presents an unprecedented situation. Experts anticipate the event will likely persist into early 2027.
A "very strong" El Niño is characterized by sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific being at least two degrees Celsius above average. Current readings indicate that ocean temperatures in the key El Niño-driving region of the Pacific are just over 2C above average, the highest level recorded since 2016.
Authorities are urging the public to remain vigilant. Rob Webb, chief executive of the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC), advised communities to stay alert, even in areas typically considered at lower risk for fires. He cautioned that a dry winter could lead to an early start to the bushfire season and encouraged residents to monitor advice from local fire services.
Despite the heightened fire risk, some experts believe Australia is better prepared than during the 2019-2020 "Black Summer" bushfires. Greg Mullins, founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, stated that lessons learned from that period have improved preparedness.
Additionally, the dry conditions are expected to impact snowfall in the Australian Alps, potentially disappointing skiers during the upcoming season.