The Atlantic hurricane season is on track to set a new record for the latest date without a hurricane forming in the satellite era, which began in the 1960s. As of this week, which marks the season's average peak, no hurricanes have developed in the basin.
The current record for the latest first hurricane formation is September 11, set in both 2002 and 2013. With no signs of tropical development expected in the near future, this season is poised to surpass that mark.
Typically, by this point in an average season, eight named tropical storms and three hurricanes would have formed. This year, however, only five tropical storms have occurred: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard. The absence of hurricane formation is largely attributed to a historic and strengthening El Niño, which typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear.
This unusual quietness contrasts sharply with the typical intensity of the Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in early to mid-September. The lack of significant storm development is a notable deviation from historical patterns, particularly given the presence of favorable atmospheric conditions that would normally support storm genesis. Satellite imagery has shown some cloud formations but also large expanses of dust from the Sahara, which can further inhibit storm development.
The longevity of this storm-free period underscores the significant impact El Niño can have on regional weather patterns, specifically dampening the potential for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.