Turbulence on Flights is Increasing, Experts Warn

Turbulence during flights is becoming more frequent and intense, according to aviation experts, with research indicating a significant rise in instability-generating wind shear and clear-air turbulence (CAT). This trend has been linked to climate change and is a growing concern for both passengers and airlines, as turbulence is the leading cause of non-fatal injuries in commercial aviation.

Recent incidents highlight the severity of the issue. In August, an Air India flight en route to Delhi experienced extreme turbulence approximately 90 minutes after departing Phuket, Thailand. The sudden drop injured at least 12 passengers, with one believed to have suffered a spinal fracture. The aircraft landed safely in Delhi, where emergency services were present.

Causes of Increased Turbulence

Aviation experts point to multiple factors contributing to the rise in turbulence. Emma Henderson, a former airline captain, stated that climate change is a primary driver. As the atmosphere warms, jet streams can strengthen due to temperature differences between air masses, leading to increased wind shear and more frequent CAT, which is particularly challenging as it occurs in clear skies and cannot be detected by weather radar.

Research from the University of Reading indicates that instability-generating wind shear in the jet stream has increased by 15 percent since 1979. Severe CAT on busy flight routes has risen by 55 percent during the same period. These changes are most noticeable at cruising altitudes.

Seasonal patterns also play a role. Maya Shpak, CEO of SkyPath, an AI-powered turbulence intelligence platform, noted that the current forecast for a strong El Niño event, peaking between November 2026 and January 2027, predicts a 30 percent increase in turbulence over the North Atlantic alone, with upticks expected in other regions as well. This El Niño surge is occurring on top of a decades-long upward trend in turbulence.

Avoiding and Managing Turbulence

While eliminating turbulence is impossible, airlines are improving their ability to anticipate and manage it. Enhanced communication between aircraft allows pilots to share real-time information about encountered turbulence, enabling following flights to adjust altitude or alert passengers to buckle up. Anton Rachenko, founder of AirAdvisor, noted that this advance warning can significantly mitigate the impact of unexpected turbulence.

For passengers, certain routes are known to be more prone to turbulence due to geographical features and weather patterns. Flights over or near major mountain ranges, such as the Andes and Himalayas, can experience mountain-wave turbulence. Areas around thunderstorms and strong weather systems also contribute to rougher conditions. Routes across the North Atlantic are also frequently cited as being particularly susceptible.

However, experts caution against choosing destinations solely based on turbulence maps. Commercial aircraft are designed to withstand turbulence, and flight crews have access to more detailed data. Routes can be adjusted, altitudes changed, or flights delayed if conditions become severe.

For passengers concerned about turbulence, practical advice includes choosing a seat over the wings, where motion is generally less pronounced, and keeping seatbelts fastened whenever seated. Cabin crew are experienced in handling nervous flyers and can offer reassurance.

Turbulence Forecasting Tools

Several apps aim to provide passengers with information about potential turbulence. Tools like Turbli and Flying Calmly use weather forecasts to inform passengers about expected turbulence, flight speed, and routes. SkyPath, designed for flight decks, utilizes real-time data from pilots and AI forecasting to create a global map of turbulence. This allows pilots and dispatchers to prepare for and potentially route around rough air.

While these apps can offer reassurance and preparation, experts advise against treating them as definitive predictions. Turbulence can be localized and conditions can change rapidly. Forecasts are not precise enough to guarantee a smooth or bumpy journey. Airlines and flight crews remain the most reliable source of information regarding real-time flight conditions.

While turbulence can be unsettling, it has never caused a modern commercial aircraft to crash. For passengers experiencing anxiety, simple techniques like visualization, deep breathing exercises, and communicating with cabin crew can help manage fear.