Persian Gulf Oil Exports Exceed Pre-War Levels Amidst Increased Iranian Attacks

Oil exports from the Persian Gulf have surpassed pre-war levels, with daily shipments exceeding 24 million barrels despite an escalating number of attacks attributed to Iran, according to maritime tracking firms and analysts.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf pipelines, and alternative routes reached an average of over 24 million barrels per day last week, surpassing the pre-war average of 23.3 million barrels daily, data from Kpler, a maritime tracking firm, indicated.

Approximately 14 million barrels per day, about 82% of the pre-war flow, transited through the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. This increased transit volume occurred in October, which has been the most active month for attacks in the Strait since March, with at least 30 ships targeted thus far, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre and maritime tracking firms. About a dozen of these attacks were reported in the past week alone.

The sustained flow is attributed to high oil prices and the protective presence of U.S. naval ships in the region, encouraging sailors to navigate the route. The cost to transport a supertanker carrying Gulf crude to China reached nearly a record $37.37 per barrel this week, Kpler reported.

"The big picture is that the system for shipping through a dangerous Strait of Hormuz is now well-established and the risk appetite of those involved in exporting oil has risen," Hamad Hussain, a senior commodities economist at Capital Economics, told The Wall Street Journal.

Analysts and maritime traders caution that this high flow may not be sustainable, particularly if conflict escalates between the U.S. and Iran. Iran has warned of intensified attacks on the Strait and its Gulf neighbors should war reignite. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for an attack on two large oil tankers, attributing it to naval mines in the Strait.