Anthropic IPO Valuation Hinges on Projected $200 Billion 2028 Revenue

Wall Street is employing an atypical valuation strategy for artificial intelligence company Anthropic, focusing on projected revenue two years into the future to determine its market debut price. The company is reportedly forecasting revenue between $190 billion and $200 billion for 2028, a figure that significantly outpaces its publicly stated $47 billion revenue run rate from May. This forward-looking approach is driven by the rapid expansion of Anthropic's business and the substantial investments in AI infrastructure, computing power, and talent.

Bankers and investors are utilizing enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on these future projections. While such multiples are common for high-growth software companies lacking a mature profit profile, looking two years ahead is less typical. This strategy acknowledges the challenges in setting benchmarks for a company still heavily investing in its growth, where margins are currently pressured by substantial spending on computing capacity and model training.

This approach is not without precedent among rapidly growing companies. For instance, Cerebras Systems cited its 2028 revenue expectations prior to its initial public offering this year, and SpaceX's projections extended to 2029 before its public debut. These cases highlight a valuation method that relies partly on anticipated future scale rather than solely on current financial performance.

Comparisons are being drawn to publicly traded companies like Cloudflare, Palantir, and SpaceX. Palantir, valued at 53 times its expected current year revenue, serves as a benchmark for businesses with rapid growth and AI exposure. Cloudflare offers a parallel for high-growth software and infrastructure companies, while SpaceX provides an example of a company valued for its future potential. Established companies are typically valued on earnings, but for Anthropic, current earnings do not fully reflect the economics expected at scale. The company's significant investments are intended to support future revenue growth that is projected to outpace costs, leading to expanding margins over time.

Anthropic's financial trajectory demonstrates this rapid evolution. The company reported its revenue run rate grew more than tenfold annually for the three years ending in early 2026. By the end of 2025, the run rate was approximately $9 billion, surging to over $47 billion by May. Projections for the second quarter of 2026 indicate revenue of at least $10.9 billion, with an anticipated operating profit of $559 million, marking its first quarterly profit.

This aggressive growth trajectory is a key factor enabling investors to consider revenue multiples based on 2028 forecasts. The valuation hinges on the expectation that Anthropic's current expenditures are laying the groundwork for a business that will eventually achieve significantly higher revenue and profit margins. Improvements in technology could lead to more efficient training and inference processes, while scaling the business may reduce the proportion of operating costs relative to revenue.