African Nations Seek Homegrown Solar Manufacturing Amidst Chinese Dominance

African nations are increasingly prioritizing the development of domestic solar manufacturing capabilities, driven by industrial ambitions and a growing concern over reliance on Chinese imports. Ethiopia, South Africa, Morocco, and Nigeria are among the largest economies stepping up efforts to localize the production of solar equipment, from module assembly to more advanced components.

Despite these efforts, experts anticipate China will likely maintain its dominant global position in the manufacturing of solar cells and other essential components. China's exports of solar equipment have surged, partly due to overcapacity within its domestic market. Between 2010 and 2024, Chinese investment in renewable energy and related construction projects in Africa reached an estimated $66 billion, according to the think tank ODI Global.

"Growing economies, coupled with recent energy shortages in countries like Zambia and the ongoing need to provide access to underserved populations, make it (Africa) a perfect market for China to channel its overcapacity in the sector," said Olena Borodyna, a senior geopolitical risk advisor with ODI Global. This dynamic presents both an opportunity for technology transfer and job creation, given China's extensive experience in scaling such technologies, but also perpetuates dependence on foreign technology for sophisticated parts of the supply chain.

South Africa's state-owned utility, Eskom, has outlined plans for a 1-gigawatt solar manufacturing facility, aiming to capitalize on the nation's rapidly expanding solar market and adapt to evolving electricity demands. In Nigeria, local solar panel assembly capacity has grown significantly, increasing from approximately 120 megawatts to around 300 megawatts over the past two years. Nigeria's annual solar imports, predominantly from China, approach the levels seen in South Africa.

The push for domestic manufacturing is closely linked to structural changes in Africa's power sectors. The rising adoption of rooftop and distributed solar systems in South Africa, for instance, is lessening the strain on the national grid, impacting utility revenues and spurring diversification efforts.

Morocco has doubled its solar production to about 1 gigawatt annually, with South Africa maintaining a similar capacity. Egypt is also developing gigawatt-scale projects. "A few years ago, local solar manufacturing was barely on the agenda anywhere in Africa," said Benjamin Clarke, policy director at the Africa Solar Industry Association. "It is now becoming a recognized pillar of industrial policy and green economic development."

Africa's demand for solar power continues to rise, with an estimated over 10 million solar kits sold across the continent in 2025, serving approximately 148 million people, according to the industry group GOGLA. This represents a 10% increase from the previous year, with significant growth concentrated in East and West Africa.

However, the global solar supply chain is highly concentrated, with Africa lacking commercial-scale solar cell manufacturing. Consequently, assembly plants on the continent must still rely on imported Chinese components. "Most new factories assemble imported Chinese components rather than produce the high-value solar cells and other upstream materials, leaving Africa dependent on foreign technology for the most sophisticated parts of the supply chain," Clarke noted.

Trade restrictions in the United States and Europe have prompted Chinese companies to increase their investments in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia. Ethiopia, for example, has been a favored destination, with Chinese sources accounting for over half of announced investments since 2018, alongside Japanese investments. In contrast, investments in South Africa, Nigeria, and Morocco have been primarily led by domestic companies or joint ventures with local participation.

Years of substantial state support and investment in green technology manufacturing in China have resulted in an oversupply of solar power equipment and declining prices, contributing to its dominant global market share. Several major Chinese solar manufacturers experienced losses in early 2026, potentially incentivizing them to seek opportunities overseas. Chinese firms have pledged as much as $250 billion in overseas green manufacturing projects between 2011 and mid-2025.

"In terms of producing and manufacturing things — like solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles — really China is by far the lead in this race," said Li Shuo, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China Climate Hub. "I personally expect the dominance of China to be further cemented and not weakened over the coming years."